Crypto Market Forecast 2023: The Market Will Have a Big Rebound

There is no denying that we are living in the next crypto winter. Similar to all winters that have happened, this crypto winter is also very cold and cruel. But the collapse comes from seemingly strong models with the support of large investment funds, from companies, corporations or strong legal exchanges.

However, we have officially passed the first winter season this time in 2022 and it is time for us to rely on each individual’s understanding to forecast the market in 2023. Where is the opportunity? What are the risks? What role does 2023 play in the next growth cycle?

Note: In this article there are many predictions about Bitcoin’s price, market trends, prominent coins/tokens and many comparisons about the similarities between the long-gone 2019 and the upcoming 2023. . Remember, this article will not mention much about the difference between 2019 and 2023. We will meet about this issue in the next article on the same topic.

Similarities between 2018 and 2022

Time to peak

The crypto market in the 2016 – 2020 cycle peaked at the price of 19,000/BTC in December 2017 – the intersection between 2017 and 2018.

The crypto market in the 2020 – 2024 cycle has a high probability of 96.69% to peak at the price of 69,000/BTC in November 2021 – the intersection between 2021 and 2022.

Time goes down

The crypto market in the 2016 – 2020 cycle, after peaking in December 2017, had a year of 2018 in a downtrend. The market’s recovery is very weak and cannot be considered a complete recovery wave.

The crypto market in the 2020 – 2024 cycle, after peaking in November 2021, will have a year of 2022 “sink” in a wave of decline due to major market events such as Terra – UST, centralized Lending platforms. medium like Celsius, Voyager,…

Provisional conclusion: The similarity of these two periods is quite clear when after reaching the peak, the crypto market in 2019 and 2021 was submerged in the red with no signs of recovery.

The end of 2018 and 2022

There is a strange similarity when the crypto market at the same time in November 2018 and November 2022 both had their final strong collapse. In November 2018, news revolved around China banning Bitcoin mining, and India had negative moves around the crypto market. In November 2022, the market collapsed sharply when FTX.com was officially defeated by Binance and Alameda Research was at risk of bankruptcy.

In November 2018, Bitcoin dropped sharply from a price of $6,000 to a price of more than $3,000. Equivalent to a reduction of more than 50%.

As of November 2022, Bitcoin has dropped sharply from a price of $21,400 to its current price of about $16,000. Equivalent to a reduction of about 30%.

Temporary conclusion: At the same time in November 2018 and 2022, the market had a sharp decrease in price. So is the decline with momentum Sam, FTX and Alameda Research Is it the last drop or not when all retails, traders and investment funds predict that the current price of BTC is not the bottom of this cycle market.

Crypto market forecast for 2023: There will be a strong rebound similar to 2019

We have seen similarities in the crypto market in 2018 and 2021. So will the crypto market next year, 2023, be similar to 2019? If 2021 is similar to 2018, it is also likely that 2023 will be similar to 2023. And now we will look back at the 2019 market together.

Crypto market in 2019

The crypto market in 2019 can be divided into 3 phases: sideways, strong growth and downtrend which is the main trend at the end of the year.

• Sideways phase: The crypto market started 2019 at around $3,800. Bitcoin’s price is moving sideways around the $3,440-$4,200 price range.
• Strong growth period: In January 2019, equivalent to the beginning of Quarter 2, 2019, and then the market grew from a price of $4,000 to a price of $14,000 at the end of June 2019, equivalent to the market growing in 1 Mid-year quarter. This growth rate is about 234% or 80% recovery compared to the old peak in December 2017.
• Downtrend: The market fell sharply in the last 2 quarters of 2019 when Bitcoin dropped to its lowest price of $6,400.

Crypto market forecast 2023

From my personal perspective, with the similarities of the crypto market in 2018 and 2022, I still think that there are still arguments for the upcoming 2023 market to be similar to 2019.

Of course, the situation of everything in the market in 2023 will be very different from 2019 such as the macroeconomics, the crypto market at the two times are also very different, the market perspective of investors and founders. The law is also very different so we will not mention that issue within the framework of this article.

And below are some predictions for the upcoming crypto market in 2023:

• The 2016 – 2020 market cycle peaked 1 month later than the 2020 – 2024 cycle, so the 2023 market will likely run 1 month earlier than 2019.
• The crypto market in Q1 will mainly go sideways, but at the time of writing, there has been a breakthrough to about $21,000/BTC.
• The market will truly explode in Q2 and if BTC regains 80% of its price from ATH, the peak in 2023 will be around $55,000/BTC. However, in a market where the macroeconomy is still relatively bad as it is now (inflation has decreased but is still high, the FED has reduced the speed of interest rate increases but interest rates are still high), so the price I expect it to be around $40,000 – $50,000.
• Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 are similar to the crypto market in 2019, the market will decrease and return to a price slightly better than the opening price at the beginning of the year.

I think the market’s driving force for the upcoming growth period will revolve around some selling points as follows:

• L2 launches tokens and implements incentive programs or subsequent incentive rounds.
• Real Yield Movement.
• Delta Neutral strategy in areas such as Stablecoin, Yield Farming, AMM,…
• AI (an area that I’m still quite vague about, so I see it as somewhat similar to the Fan Token trend that has failed quite a bit recently).

There is a high possibility that at this stage we still cannot determine the next uptrend trend after the 2024 halving, which we can only vaguely recognize at the end of 2023 and early 2024.

Summary

Above is my personal perspective and the Weakhand team’s perspective on the crypto market in 2023, mostly based on what has happened in the past and not entirely based on technical analysis. Remember, this is not investment advice.

Wishing everyone a successful investment year 2023.