When Will Bitcoin Break Its Old Peak?

When will Bitcoin break its old peak is definitely a question that we are always curious about and listen to many communities and KOLs in the industry. So when will Bitcoin break its old peak? Let’s find out together in the article below.

To better understand this article, people can refer to some of the documents below:

• 1 Year Until The Next Cycle. What do you need to prepare to change your position?
• What is Bitcoin Halving? The Importance of Bitcoin Halving for the crypto market

Bitcoin & 4 Year Cycle

Overview of Bitcoin cycles

We are all too familiar with the phrase Bitcoin Halving, to put it simply, every 4 years Bitcoin’s block reward will decrease by 50%, this leads to a sudden decrease in supply while demand remains the same or increases. Bitcoin price will enter the next growth cycle. During those 4 years, we will have 1 year of increase and reach ATH, 1 year of decrease and 2 years of sideways. Let’s look back at the most recent cycles.

Market period 2016 – 2020

Bitcoin officially launched in July 2016 and then continued to move sideways until March 2017, when the market began to explode. By February 2017, Bitcoin officially reached its old peak and sought a new peak at the end of 2017 at nearly $20,000 per BTC. We have a few notable figures as follows:

• Bitcoin took 7 months from the time of Halving to return to the old peak of the previous period. (first)
• Bitcoin took about 3 years + 2 months to return to the old peak from the time it established ATH in the previous cycle. (3)

Besides the story about the old peak, let’s find data on how long it takes for Bitcoin to find a new peak and the timelines such as the Halving event and the timeline to establish the old peak. Bitcoin peaked in December 2017. Continuing, we have some notable figures as follows:

• Bitcoin took about 1 year and 5 months, nearly 1.5 years, to reach its ATH level from the time of Halving. Calculated from July 2016 to December 2021. (5)
• Bitcoin takes about 4 years and 1 month or about 4 years to reach a new peak if calculated from the time the peak of the old cycle is confirmed. Calculated from November 2013 to December 2021. (6)

Market period 2020 – 2024

Bitcoin officially halved in May 2020, then the market continued to move sideways until October 2020. From September 2020, Bitcoin began to break out and quickly broke the old peak of the 2016 – 2020 period at the end of December 2020. It mean,

• Bitcoin took 7 months from the time of Halving to return to the old peak of the previous period. Calculated from December 2017 to November 2021.(2)
• It took Bitcoin about 3 years to return to its old peak from the time it established its ATH in the previous cycle. Calculated from December 2017 to December 2020. (4)

The growth driver of this market is DeFi Summer in 2020. During 2021, the motivation comes from the combined story of Layer 1 and DeFi (money flow between ecosystems), the story of NFT, Gaming later labeled Metaverse and the final trend that closed a period of strong growth was StepN with Move to Earn.

The assumption is that Bitcoin is expected to Halving in April 2023.

From arguments (1) and (2), we can temporarily speculate that if the operating cycles are similar, then

“In November 2024 Bitcoin will reach its previous peak of $69,000 per BTC.”

So when will Bitcoin set a new peak?

Looking back at the story of the last cycle, Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 at a price of $69,000. And we have some of the following numbers:

• It took Bitcoin about 1.5 years to reach its ATH level from the time of Halving. Calculated from May 2020 to November 2021. (7)
• Bitcoin takes about 4 years to reach a new peak if calculated from the time the peak of the old cycle is confirmed. Calculated from December 2017 to November 2021. (8)

So from arguments (5) and (7), we can temporarily calculate that it may take Bitcoin from 1 year and 5 months to 1 year and 6 months from the time of Halving to establish a new peak. So if Bitcoin is expected to halving in April 2024, then around September – October 2025, Bitcoin will reach a new peak. (a)

If from arguments (8) and (6), Bitcoin will take about 4 years or 4 years and 1 month from the old peak to establish a new peak. The old peak time was November 2021, then 4 years later it is expected that Bitcoin will reach a new peak in November 2025 or December 2025. (b)

“From arguments (a) and (b), it shows that Bitcoin is likely to reach a new peak in the period from September to December 2025”

What Action to Take at This Time?

Obviously, we have gone through the downtrend year of 2022 and officially entered the two main sideways years of 2023 and 2024. In particular, we have gone through most of 2023 and follow us from now until the halving and about 4 years after the halving. – 5 months, i.e. from August 2023 – August 2024, is the time to search for potential projects and choose a reasonable entry point.

A reasonable entry point would be the entry point whenever the market encounters bad news for us to DCA like recently even though SpaceX sold Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2023 but the market still collapsed. This is a time to DCA, right? It’s not a story of guessing the bottom and catching the bottom. Don’t do so if you are not a professional and full-time investor in the Crypto market. Some articles about trends in the upcoming cycle that people can refer to:

• What is Layer 2? Complete Guide to Layer 2 Solutions
• What is DeSocial? Growth Potential of Decentralized Social Networks
• What is Layer 3? Overview of Layer 3 Solutions
• What is Blockchain Layer 1? The Importance of Layer 1 in the Crypto Market
• What is NFT? All About NFTs
• What is NFTFi? Will NFTFi Become A Strong Trend

However, it is very possible that the market will explode with a new trend that has not appeared at the present time, so always store a portion of Stablecoin to capture those trends.

Summary

Above are some of my personal views on “When Will Bitcoin Break Its Old Peak?” and is not an investment advice. What is your perspective on this issue?