In less than a year, the Bitcoin Halving event will take place and open a new growth cycle for the entire crypto market. However, without careful preparation, you will be no different from a newbie in the crypto market with only one thing more than experience swinging to the top. And in this article, I and everyone will go through some of the following main ideas:
- What is Bitcoin Halving? Why is it said that after Bitcoin Halving, the market will enter a new growth cycle?
- If you don’t have knowledge then you are no different from a newbie.
- Looking back at the 2021 uptrend and memorable life lessons.
- Things to prepare for the next growth cycle.
Overview of the Bitcoin Halving Event
What is Bitcoin Halving?
Bitcoin Halving is a relatively simple event where the reward for each block successfully included in the Bitcoin blockchain is reduced by half, which means that Bitcoin’s inflation rate also reduces by half.
The reward per block on Bitcoin has gradually decreased after each Halving event as follows:
- After Bitcoin Halving 1st On November 28, 2012, the reward was reduced from 50 BTC to only 25 BTC per block.
- After Bitcoin Halving 2nd time On July 9, 2016, the reward was reduced from 25 BTC to only 12.5 BTC per block.
- After Bitcoin Halving 3rd On May 4, 2020, the reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to only 6.25 BTC per block.
- After Bitcoin Halving 4th Expected to take place on April 29, 2024, the reward has been reduced from 6.25 BTC to only 3,125 BTC per block.
There will be some views that the number of Bitcoins is decreasing day by day, making Bitcoin’s growth momentum less. However, in my opinion, the above point of view is not wrong but it is not enough. Besides, we consider how much the number of Bitcoin decreases each time halving, we must also observe the value of that amount of Bitcoin.
- The value of 25 BTC waiting for the first halving is $300.
- The value of 12.5 BTC waiting for the second halving is $8,125.
- The value of 6.25 BTC waiting for the third halving is $55,000.
- The 3,125 BTC waiting for the third halving has an expected value of approx $93,750 equivalent to $30,000/BTC.
It can be seen that after each Bitcoin Halving event, miners’ revenue will decrease in both BTC and USD. Is that the driving force for Bitcoin’s price to enter a new growth cycle?
Look at old growth cycles associated with the Bitcoin Halving event
The first Bitcoin Halving event on November 28, 2012
Entering the first Bitcoin Halving event took place on November 28, 2012, at that time the price of BTC was hovering around $12, then approximately exactly 1 year later Bitcoin quickly found the peak of the cycle with The price of $1180/BTC is equivalent to nearly 100 times growth.
However, after that, the Bitcoin market entered the crypto winter with a decrease of up to 85%, after reaching the bottom, Bitcoin’s price had a strong recovery before entering the next cycle. And let’s summarize some Bitcoin information over the cycles in the tables below.
Looking at the above summary table, we can see that after each cycle Bitcoin always sets a new peak higher than the old peak and even then the bottom of the next cycle is also higher than the bottom. From the above simple factors we can believe that: “We will continue to have a new growth cycle and Bitcoin’s next peak will definitely be higher than $70K“.
And certainly when you are reading this article, you also have the same belief as me and I also believe that you want to share more perspectives on Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming cycle but I will make an appointment with everyone to inform you. that in the next articles.
However, I have a few small points I want to share with everyone such as:
“If people enter a new cycle without basic knowledge about Blockchain, Layer 1, Layer 2, DeFi, NFT,… then you are no different from a brand new person entering the market. You are only better than them in one point: you reached the top exactly once more than them. There are many people who have gone through 2 crypto winters. So why have they not succeeded yet? What is the reason?”
Therefore, everyone needs to prepare carefully in terms of knowledge, experience as well as finances to have success in the next cycle of the crypto market. However, before going into the preparation section, we will look back at some of the lessons from the past 2020 – 2024 cycle.
Looking Back at Uptrend 2021 & Lessons to Remember in Life
Some of my biggest lessons from the recent growth cycle include the following:
- Just because of excessive subjectivity, I missed trends like Metaverse, NFT, Play to Earn or StepN with Move to Earn. That subjectivity happens when we are too attached to DeFi and Layer 1 and think that the remaining things are not valuable.
- Believing too much in the technology of projects but ignoring the important thing is the fomo of the community and the timing of the market.
- Too conservative about holding to target despite sensing that the market is in a strong fomo phase.
- Being conservative about the fact that Bitcoin will have to reach the price of $100K in the 2020 – 2024 cycle but forgetting that everyone in the market is overly optimistic about the market.
- There are bets that have been xed a lot like Near Protocol, I have DCA at a price around $4. However, when Near Protocol goes up to 12, 16, even 20, I have no intention of finalizing the original but continue to hope.
Those are the lessons I learned during the uptrend, but even during the downtrend, I also have many lessons for myself such as:
- Obviously, there are projects that are no longer progressing but are still simply holding on to expectations. Haven’t stopped losing yet to look for potential new projects.
Besides the lessons learned through changing my mindset, focusing on learning new knowledge of the market and always following each trend closely, I achieved a few small achievements during the last downtrend. This like:
- Through basic analysis + on-chain analysis, I won relatively big with the Lido Finance bet thanks to the Shanghai Update.
- Through trend forecasting, I almost ate the entire wave of Arbitrum including Retroative plus investing in projects on the Arbitrum system from Q3 – Q4/2022, but I also missed a few things. projects like Radiant, Camelot or Sperax.
Things to Prepare for the Next Growth Cycle
Knowledge is the core element
From my perspective, knowledge is the root of all problems in life in general and the crypto market in particular. Let’s be honest with each other in a few questions below:
- Why are we called chickens in the crypto market?
- Why do people new to the crypto market follow this or that person’s bets and end up burning their accounts?
- Why does everyone entering this market focus on questions like how is this one? How is the other child?
- Why do we suffer from FOMO before good news and FUD before bad news, leading to loss of investment position?
- Why do we miss out on SOL, AVAX, LUNA,… by a few bucks.
The answer is actually very simple because we don’t have knowledge so we are like blind people, naive children because we are lured extremely easily. We are greedy simply because we do not have knowledge. Therefore, before every failure, dare to accept responsibility for yourself.
Instead of blaming the market and KOLs for not having a conscience, let’s blame ourselves because we don’t educate ourselves or get discouraged after reading a few lines. Everything in life comes from you.
The knowledge here not only includes basic knowledge about Blockchain, Layer 1, Layer 2, NFT, DeFi, Gaming,… but also diverse knowledge such as:
- Manage personal finance.
- Portfolio management (Investment portfolio).
- Manage emotions.
- Macroeconomic.
Knowledge is something we always have to learn, cultivate and update throughout our lives, but remember that knowledge is like watering plants, we need to do it regularly, regularly and never give up even if it gets boring. no matter what.
Note that if at the present time you still do not understand what DeFi is? What is Layer 1? What is Layer 2? then you are almost 4 years behind the market. We don’t have too much time left because the Bitcoin Halving event will take place in April 2024 and now your fate is up to you to decide!
Self-study, self-study, self-project and self-invest or continue to be market chickens and KOLs plucking their feathers?
Experience is the process of actual combat on the battlefield
If you are equipped with complete knowledge but do not dare to invest, you are no different from a warrior who works hard on the battlefield but has never gone to battle or people say that he is an empty theorist.
In my opinion, learning knowledge, making analysis, forecasting and investing according to personal projections will help you experience true failure or success in this market. Failure or success at this stage is not so important, it is important that we understand why we succeed or fail and then learn lessons for ourselves.
From now until the end of 2023 is a test battlefield for you to experience until the biggest war will take place starting in 2024. Turn knowledge into experience and strength on the battlefield. After each failure, we tell ourselves we will do better next time, but we must know why we failed and then improve ourselves.
Careful financial preparation
Having knowledge for sure, doing airdrop/retroactive will be better. For me, recently, I won 7K ARB and earned more than $8,000 and I had 3 accounts that won SUI for a total of nearly 5,000 SUI, not counting. If I win SUI on Kucoin, I will bring in an additional 5,000 SUI (going to the pool with my friends in Core Team). If SUI is $1, I will earn about $10,000.
Having knowledge has helped me buy a lot of winning Discord accounts because I see that the winning rate will be high compared to just the cost for 1 account of about $15 – $20.
Besides doing airdrop/retroactive with my knowledge, I also won many investment bets while the market recovered as I shared above. In addition, for those of you who are not full-time in the crypto market, everyone should have a job that brings immediate finances to take care of living expenses and then save for investment.
For me at the present time, I try to maintain a minimum standard of living and use that money to invest profitably in the Crypto market.
